The war in the Middle East is not a distant problem. As we can see, it is already reshaping the cost of living for every Malaysian, and the full impact has not yet arrived.

 

Most people think of petroleum as fuel. But petroleum is in almost everything we use daily:

• Fuel for buses, lorries and deliveries

• Plastic packaging for food and groceries

• Bottles, containers and food wrapping

• Shampoo, detergents and household products

• Fertilisers that grow our food

• The synthetic materials in our clothing

 

When oil supply is disrupted, the impact does not stop at the pump. It travels through the entire economy.

 

 

The chain reaction is already in motion:

Fuel prices rise > Transport and delivery costs rise > Suppliers absorb higher input costs > Retailers adjust prices > Ultimately, you pay more for everything

 

We are already seeing early disruptions in product availability on shelves, which Farm Fresh being one example, where its packaging supply chains among the first to feel the pressure.

 

The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers (FMM) has warned that 9 in 10 manufacturers expect supply chain disruptions within weeks. Some companies have less than two weeks of stock remaining. 

 

Freight costs have surged between 20% and 50% in some cases, on top of war risk surcharges and marine insurance premiums that have jumped between 200% and 400%.

 

Bear in mind, this is not a forecast. It is already happening.

 

 

Petroleum powers our food system too:

• Fertilisers are produced from natural gas

• Farms rely on fuel for machinery and logistics

• Cold chain distribution runs on diesel

 

Local fertiliser producers have already reported raw material cost increases of between 100% and 150% within a short period. As fertiliser costs rise, food production costs follow. Food prices will eventually reflect that.

 

The food impact moves slower than fuel. But it is already in motion.

 

 

To be fair, the government has been responding and the pace has picked up.

 

PM Anwar has publicly addressed supply concerns and confirmed fuel supply is secured in the near term. Petronas has diversified sourcing. RON95 subsidies remain in place, keeping pump prices affordable. Malaysia has also engaged diplomatically with regional leaders, and Malaysian vessels are currently being allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Most recently, the government announced a RM5 billion loan facility for SMEs, alongside an expanded RM10 billion financing guarantee under SJPP, with priority sectors include logistics, agriculture and construction, which are among the most exposed to this crisis.

 

But the structural gap remains.

 

Financial relief alone does not replace coordination. The FMM still had to publicly urge the government on freight rate transparency and manufacturer protection, because no proactive framework exists for these yet. 

 

Subsidy gaps remain, particularly for informal sector workers and micro-entrepreneurs, where details are still vague.

 

And critically, there is still no single, clearly designated government body coordinating and communicating the full economic picture to the rakyat — unlike the centralised command we had during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Announcing measures is not the same as coordinating a response.

 

 

This crisis requires more than reactive measures. 

 

We propose:

• A dedicated Crisis Coordination Unit — a single, named body responsible for cross-ministry coordination amongst others on supply chain, pricing and food security, with a clear mandate and regular public updates

• Proactive targeted relief — not blanket subsidies, but structured support for SMEs, informal sector workers, farmers and logistics operators who are most exposed

• A public communications framework — clear, consistent, honest updates from the government to the rakyat on what is happening, what to expect, and what is being done

 

Malaysia has shown before, during COVID-19, that centralised coordination works. We need that same discipline applied to this economic crisis.

 

The window is still open. But it is closing.

 

Some impacts are immediate. Others like food prices, product shortages, business closures take months to fully materialise. 

 

That lag is not a reason to wait. It is the reason to act now.

 

The question is no longer “Will Malaysia be affected?”

 

The question is whether our government will get ahead of it, or spend the next two years catching up.

 

We urge the government to act with urgency, transparency, and coordination, before the full weight of this crisis lands on ordinary Malaysians.